Ottawa, Canada – For months, Pierre Poilievre had been driving excessive.
He had efficiently tapped into public anxiousness over an affordability disaster in Canada, his assaults towards Prime Minister Justin Trudeau had discovered a receptive viewers, and his Conservative Occasion loved an enormous lead within the polls.
However then Trudeau introduced he was stepping down. The governing Liberal Occasion named a brand new chief. And Canadian politics shifted course, confronted with threats of tariffs and annexation from United States President Donald Trump.
And identical to that, Poilievre and the Tories noticed their lead evaporate.
“The marketing campaign that Poilievre thought he was going to run [has disappeared] out from below him,” mentioned Lisa Younger, a political science professor on the College of Calgary.
With Canadians heading into April 28 elections, specialists mentioned Poilievre now faces a good race when as soon as he was the frontrunner.
Surveys recommend Canadians are questioning whether or not the Conservative Occasion chief has what it takes to confront the US president.
In mid-January, the Conservatives had a lead of as many as 26 share factors, however polling now reveals the Liberals may safe a majority authorities within the upcoming elections.
But Poilievre’s message continues to resonate in elements of the nation.
He enjoys a powerful base of supporters, and the longtime Parliament member has been hailed by Conservative insiders as a savvy politician who shouldn’t be counted out.
“Pierre is the true deal,” mentioned Nathan Bergstrand, a enterprise supervisor at United Affiliation Native 67, a union representing plumbers, steamfitters and welders.
“He’s been one of many loudest and strongest voices prior to now a number of years preventing out-of-control deficit spending and tax will increase,” Bergstrand instructed a Poilievre rally in Hamilton, Ontario, in March. “Do not forget that spending is simple. Being accountable isn’t. He’s able to put the laborious work in that’s obligatory.”
So simply who’s Pierre Poilievre, what does he stand for, and might he change into Canada’s subsequent prime minister?
‘Put our personal folks first’
The Hamilton rally, which passed off simply days into the election marketing campaign, in some ways demonstrated the political persona Poilievre has cultivated lately.
1000’s of individuals lined as much as hear the Conservative chief communicate within the working-class metropolis west of Toronto, which has sometimes been a bastion of assist for the left-leaning New Democrats.
“We’re going to rise up for who we’re and what we imagine, and we’re going to place our personal folks first,” Poilievre instructed the gang of supporters who chanted, “We would like Pierre!” earlier than he took the stage.
Describing Canada as a “nation certain collectively by the Canadian promise that anybody from wherever can obtain something”, he promised to revive a way of nationwide pleasure after a “misplaced decade” of Liberal governance.
“If you’re that younger couple determined to purchase a house and begin a household earlier than the organic clock runs out in your mid-30s, I’m right here to say that change is on the best way,” Poilievre mentioned to applause.
“If you’re an aged couple selecting between consuming and heating and questioning what occurred to the gorgeous nation that you just knew and nonetheless love, I’m right here to say that each hope and alter are on the best way.”
That message is one which Poilievre has tied to his personal origin story, rising up within the metropolis of Calgary within the western province of Alberta.
Thrilled to obtain the endorsement of Nathan Bergstrand, UA Native 67’s Enterprise Supervisor, an awesome champion for his employees.
His members are the extraordinary Canadians who construct our nation.
Collectively we are going to ensure they, and all the employees throughout this nation, have a Prime… pic.twitter.com/41YaMICWhC
— Pierre Poilievre (@PierrePoilievre) March 26, 2025
‘Scrappy’ seasoned politician
Born to a teenage mom and adopted by two schoolteachers, Poilievre has publicly referred to his household as “an advanced and mixed-up bunch”, utilizing his upbringing as a metaphor for Canada itself.
He would later credit score his adopted dad and mom with instilling in him an entrepreneurial spirit. “They taught me that it didn’t matter the place I got here from however the place I used to be going,” Poilievre mentioned. “It didn’t matter who I knew however what I may do.”
He ultimately attended the College of Calgary, the place he shortly obtained concerned in conservative politics.
At age 20, he gained an essay contest for writing about how, if ever elected prime minister, he would put “freedom” on the coronary heart of his authorities.
“I might relinquish to residents as a lot of my social, political, and financial management as attainable, leaving folks to domesticate their very own private prosperity and to control their very own affairs as straight as attainable,” he wrote.
After college, Poilievre labored for Stockwell Day, an Alberta politician who led the Canadian Alliance, a celebration that within the early 2000s merged with the Progressive Conservatives to kind the Conservative Occasion of Canada.
Poilievre was 25 when he gained his first federal race in 2004 in an electoral district, recognized in Canada as a driving, within the capital, Ottawa. He has represented the world ever since, together with by the practically 10-year tenure of Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper.
He held a number of roles below Harper, together with because the prime minister’s parliamentary secretary and later as minister of state for democratic reform.
However Poilievre turned often known as an “assault canine” who used partisan rhetoric in defence of Harper and the Conservative authorities’s insurance policies.
In 2013, the left-leaning New Democratic Occasion mentioned Poilievre’s rise demonstrated that, “to change into a minister for Stephen Harper, you have to depart the reality behind and embrace mean-spirited assaults”.
Regardless of the criticism, Poilievre maintained his aggressive political model when the Trudeau-led Liberals gained the 2015 elections and kicked the Conservatives out of presidency.
The Tories have been in opposition since then — a task that specialists mentioned Poilievre, who has helmed the Conservative Occasion since 2022, excels in.
“He has spent principally his grownup life being a partisan,” Younger mentioned. “He’s described by people who find themselves near him as a really gifted politician, and definitely, he’s described precisely as scrappy.”
Focusing on Trudeau
That scrappiness is one thing Poilievre has used to his benefit lately as Canadians grew more and more anxious about affordability points.
Poilievre harnessed widespread anxiousness and anger over hovering housing and grocery prices to lambast Trudeau, whom he blamed for the entire ills befalling the nation. He even known as Trudeau a “wacko prime minister” on the ground of the Canadian Parliament.
Andrew Tumilty, director of points administration and disaster communications on the Enterprise Canada communications agency, mentioned Poilievre has employed “a really populist strategy” to politics that’s “meant to stoke emotion relatively than pondering”.
“One among his central themes was that Canada is damaged,” Tumilty instructed Al Jazeera. “That additionally relied closely on his characterisation of former Prime Minister Trudeau as being the explanation that Canada is damaged.”
Poilievre additionally has taken an antagonistic strategy to mainstream media, accusing journalists of bias and promising to defund the general public broadcaster CBC.
He has denounced progressive insurance policies as “wokeness” run amok, promised to be robust on crime and mentioned he plans to shortly greenlight main useful resource initiatives, elevating issues over his dedication to preventing local weather change and respecting Indigenous rights.
In the meantime, Poilievre has been in a position to painting himself as a defender of a working-class struggling to make ends meet.
He zeroed in on an unpopular authorities carbon-pricing programme, for instance, to color Trudeau as out of contact with most Canadians and their wants. “Axe the Tax” – his slogan about scrapping carbon pricing – was a profitable, early rallying cry.
On the similar time, Poilievre routinely makes use of his speeches and social media movies to pine for a time when Canadians had good-paying jobs and will afford properties, and he has promised to revive that period.
His message has performed properly to the Conservative Occasion’s base, which is basically centred in western Canada. But it surely has likewise allowed Poilievre to attraction to different elements of the nation which have grown pissed off with the established order.
Greg Walker, an Ottawa resident who lives in Poilievre’s driving, is amongst those that are fed up with the governing Liberal Occasion.
“I’m going to vote Conservative, for Poilievre,” Walker instructed Al Jazeera in late March outdoors a grocery retailer within the small city of Stittsville.
“He sounds succesful as the top of the opposition celebration. Let’s see how he does. How a lot worse can he do than [Trudeau] doubling the nationwide debt in 9 years?”
Walker, like a number of different voters Al Jazeera spoke to in Stittsville, acknowledged that a part of the explanation he’s backing Poilievre is out of exhaustion with the Liberals below Trudeau.
“It’s not as if I all the time vote for a man I like the perfect. It’s extra that I vote towards the man who’s an fool,” Walker mentioned.
Convoy assist
However many have raised alarm over Poilievre’s aggressive model and insurance policies and warned that his guarantees to defend working-class Canadians will go unfulfilled.
“Since his first election, this profession politician has constantly sided with the rich on the expense of working folks,” the Canadian Union of Public Workers, the biggest union in Canada with about 750,000 members, mentioned in October.
“His lengthy monitor document as an MP proves that Poilievre is working for his buddies – billionaires, banks, and large polluters – not employees, not you.”
Poilievre’s resolution to embrace the “Freedom Convoy” has additionally drawn scrutiny. Led by far-right activists, the convoy blockaded the streets of Ottawa in 2022 to protest towards COVID-19 vaccine mandates and different authorities insurance policies.
Trudeau’s resolution to invoke the seldom-used Emergencies Act to disperse the protest drew controversy. That included the freezing of some individuals’ financial institution accounts, which rights teams mentioned was an infringement on civil liberties.
“Pierre managed to get a foot in there with subtlety, with engagement, with that ‘each individual’ sort of mentality that he has,” defined Carmen Celestini, a professor on the College of Waterloo who research far-right actions and conspiracy theories.
“That was a really clever, strategic transfer for him,” Celestini mentioned of Poilievre’s involvement within the convoy.
The Conservatives had been at a important crossroads on the time, having misplaced three consecutive elections to the Liberals. Usually, Tory leaders had sought to attraction to Canadian voters with a extra centrist platform than what they ran for the management on.
However Poilievre, who gained the Conservative management race simply months after he spoke out in defence of convoy individuals, didn’t try this. Specialists famous on the time that his victory signalled that the celebration was embracing a populist model of conservatism.
His affiliation with the convoy additionally allowed the Conservatives to forestall the far-right Individuals’s Occasion of Canada from siphoning off a few of their assist.
Poilievre has denied accusations that his backing of the convoy motion meant he supported far-right fringe components.
Celestini, nevertheless, mentioned he generally makes use of “set off phrases” that attraction to far-right conspiracy theorists. She pointed to Poilievre’s repeated assaults on the World Financial Discussion board (WEF) as one such instance.
“That’s interesting to the viewers that thinks we’re within the ‘nice reset’,” Celestini defined, referring to the conspiracy principle that the WEF is making an attempt to impose an authoritarian world authorities by its COVID-19 restoration plan.
Poilievre additionally lately gave an interview to in style right-wing commentator Jordan Peterson. In it, Poilievre denounced “an obsession with race that woke-ism has reinserted” and “invented in some ways”. He promised to revive “the values of gratitude” for Canadian historical past.
“He makes use of these phrases that talk to conspiracists, that talk to the engagement of males who really feel disenfranchised or have constructed victimhood,” Celestini mentioned.
The Trump issue
However Poilievre’s transfer away from the political centre may pose a problem in Canada’s quickly evolving political sphere.
In early January, Trudeau introduced he could be stepping down as prime minister, stripping Poilievre of the adversary he had spent years sparring with.
Trump’s threats of imposing steep tariffs on Canada and making the nation into the US’s “51st state” have additionally led to an increase in Canadian nationalism and calls to unite in defence of the nation’s sovereignty.
“Listening to the message [from Poilievre] of Canada being damaged … isn’t going to play as properly when there’s a surge of nationwide unity and nationwide pleasure,” Tumilty mentioned.
Younger additionally defined that whereas Poilievre’s insurance policies are completely different from Trump’s, he has adopted a “Trump model” that isn’t sitting properly with many Canadians at this second of heightened tensions with the US.
“He likes giving nicknames to his opponents the best way Trump has given nicknames to his opponents. He has sort of a snarky, dismissive method of coping with the mainstream media that’s kind of harking back to Trump,” she mentioned.
“He’s in an election the place a key section of the voters – the people who find themselves in all probability going to determine this election – are people who find themselves searching for somebody to guide the nation by a really tough financial and political second. They maybe need sophistication, not slogans.”
A March 20 ballot from the analysis agency Ipsos discovered that 41 % of respondents favoured Liberal chief Mark Carney to deal with Trump, in contrast with 31 % for Poilievre.
The identical ballot discovered that 43 % of respondents believed Poilievre would “roll over and settle for” Trump’s calls for, practically double the share of people that mentioned the identical of Carney.
The Conservative Occasion didn’t instantly reply to Al Jazeera’s request for remark.
Hal Howlett, an Ottawa-area resident who voted in Poilievre’s driving earlier than the strains had been redrawn, mentioned his fundamental concern heading into the upcoming elections is having a frontrunner who can stand as much as Trump.
“And I believe Carney is that man,” he mentioned.
Howlett added that he by no means preferred the best way Poilievre would trash his Liberal opponents whereas canvassing for previous elections.
“I simply by no means preferred him, and I couldn’t perceive how he saved getting elected. He was smug even when he wasn’t the highest man,” Howlett mentioned.
“I don’t assume a prime politician must be a jerk, identical to Donald Trump is.”
Important marketing campaign
Polls are displaying the Liberals have prolonged their lead within the election race, with the CBC Information Ballot Tracker saying the celebration is transferring “deeper into majority territory”. As of April 9, Poilievre and the Conservatives are 7 share factors behind.
The query stays, although, how Poilievre would possibly tackle rising tensions with the US if he turns into the following prime minister.
A Breitbart interview with Conservative Alberta Premier Danielle Smith lately resurfaced, reigniting scrutiny over the difficulty.
Smith instructed the far-right US information outlet that she had appealed to the Trump administration to delay its tariffs till after the Canadian elections as a result of they had been serving to the Liberals. She additionally mentioned Poilievre was “in sync” with the US administration.
However, Poilievre has sought to current himself as the best option to tackle Trump.
Standing at a podium emblazoned with the slogan “Canada First – for a Change”, Poilievre launched his marketing campaign on March 23 by attacking the Liberals as having “made our financial system and our nation weaker and extra divided, identical to Trump wished”.
“Electing Liberals to a fourth time period will weaken our nation nonetheless,” he added.
In response to Younger, the monthlong marketing campaign season goes to be pivotal.
She famous that each Poilievre and Carney are of their first election race as leaders of their respective events and the way they are going to deal with the strain stays an open query.
“Voters have shifted their vote intention during the last a number of weeks, however that’s versatile. It might nonetheless shift again,” she instructed Al Jazeera.
“We don’t know what plot twists are coming through the marketing campaign from Donald Trump. I actually assume it’s anybody’s guess how that is going to play out.”
